The Myth of the 5-Year Exit
The median exit takes longer than a decade
With the forthcoming acquisition of BeatBox by AB InBev for $700M, remember that company is 13 years old. 💥 📻
Starting a company and achieving an exit in five years is possible, just like it’s possible to win the lottery twice. 🎰
It’s an outlier, yet for many founders I speak with it’s an expectation. 1
The reality is longer and harder:
The median time for a $1B+ SaaS exit is 10 years.2 📈
Companies now stay private for an average of 13-14 years before an IPO.3 🏦
In the drinks space, it’s no different:
🍷 Massican ~14 years before Gallo acquired in 2023
🥤 Poppi ~10 yrs before PepsiCo acquired in 2025
🔋 Alani Nu ~7 yrs before Celsius Holdings acquired in 2025
🍵 Health-Ade Kombucha ~13 yrs before Generous Brands acquired in 2025
🥃 Germain-Robin ~35 years before Gallo acquired in 2017
All took many years to scale and exit. 🗓️
This is the norm.
Compounding growth works best over a long time horizon.
One must invest both their time and money with a decade(s)-long view. 🕰️
They’re anchored to outliers like Casamigos (~4 years from launch to acquisition) and Whiny Baby (~5 years from launch to acquisition).
“Startups are staying private longer thanks to alternative capital” by Robert Frank. Frank cites recent research from Renaissance Capital. Looking at a slightly different set of parameters, David George of Andreessen Horowitz lands at 14 years in his report, “Private Markets Are The New High-Growth Public Markets.” Is it not curious that both these gentlemen have two first names?